Analysis of the Championship's 'bottom six'.

In this short article, I analyse two aspects of teams in the bottom six - their goal difference and use of substitutions. Which I then compare to Norwich and Swansea, two of the Championship's promotion contenders.


Over the last six games, all of the bottom six (except from Rotherham) have a better goals for/against record in the first halves of games than their second half goal difference. Four teams have a positive or neutral first half goal difference, Rotherham’s 1st half goal difference is just -1 and Wycombe have the worst first half goal difference of -4. Wycombe also have the worst second half goal difference, -9 with just one goal scored. Including Wycombe, five of the bottom six have a negative second half goal difference. Only Rotherham have a positive second half goal difference (+4).


The tables below uses data from each team's last six games.

None of the bottom six average more than 1 substitute made before the 60th minute mark. 3 of the bottom six average 3 or more substitutes after 60 minutes, and all 6 average over 2.3. Over the last 6 games, 4 of the bottom six have averaged at least 3 substitutes per a game.

Compared against the Norwich and Swansea:


The table below uses data from the last 6 games which involved a goal (scored or conceded) for each team.

What can be taken from this data?

  1. The bottom six, except from Wycombe, on average are still in the games at half time. Goals scored decreases by a goal between the two halves, but goals conceded increases by 15

  2. The bottom six use substitutions to a similar extent to each other, mostly used after 60 minutes in games

  3. The bottom six and top two both have worse second half goals scored & conceded records, compared to their first half records

  4. Norwich have averaged at least 3 substitutes in their last three games, similar to the bottom six’s use of substitutes. Swansea have used only 4 substitutes in 3 games, much lower than Norwich and bottom six's average use of substitutes

  5. Rotherham unlike the rest of the bottom six & other two, are more clinical in the second half

  6. First half leads can be very significant to the outcomes of games


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